L\u2019\u00e9tude examine les seuils de transition d\u2019endettement qui pourraient susciter les crises de la dette au sein des pays de la Communaut\u00e9 Economique et Mon\u00e9taire de l\u2019Afrique Centrale choisi pour la p\u00e9riode 2000-2023. A partir des mod\u00e9lisations \u00e0 choix ordonn\u00e9e \u00e0 effets al\u00e9atoires et quadratique en SGMM et PSTR, les r\u00e9sultats r\u00e9v\u00e8lent que le fardeau de la dette, la qualit\u00e9 des politiques et des institutions, les d\u00e9penses publiques, le solde de compte courant, le service de la dette, l\u2019ouverture commerciale et les termes d\u2019\u00e9change expliquent une fraction substantielle de la variation entre les pays et les s\u00e9ries temporelles de l\u2019incidence de crise de la dette, avec une relation en forme de U invers\u00e9e entre la dette et le surendettement, pour des niveaux d\u2019endettement estim\u00e9s \u00e0 57%, 61,5% et 32,64% du PIB. Seuils au-dessus duquel les pays sont expos\u00e9s aux risques de surendettement. A plusieurs niveaux de contr\u00f4le, les r\u00e9sultats de la robustesse demeurent globalement concordants avec les estimations de base, et justifient que les seuils estim\u00e9s sont endog\u00e8nes, ne pouvant remettre en cause la norme budg\u00e9taire en vigueur au sein de la r\u00e9gion qui limite la dette \u00e0 70% du PIB. Les seuils estim\u00e9s d\u00e9pendent des indicateurs macro\u00e9conomiques et de la m\u00e9thode d\u2019estimation, d\u2019o\u00f9 il n\u2019y pas un v\u00e9ritable consensus pour un seuil d\u2019endettement optimal absolu. L\u2019article propose que les cons\u00e9quences potentielles de la hausse rapide de la dette et le niveau seuil de la dette peuvent \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme un indicateur de ciblage de la dette publique pour conduire les politiques \u00e9conomiques des pays de la CEMAC sur le processus d\u2019int\u00e9gration mon\u00e9taire r\u00e9gionale.<\/p>\n
Mots cl\u00e9s\u00a0: <\/strong>Seuils, Dette publique, Surendettement, CEMAC, Probit Ordonn\u00e9 \u00e0 effets al\u00e9atoires.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The study examines the debt transition thresholds that could trigger debt crises within the countries of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa chosen for the period 2000-2023. From ordered choice modeling with random and quadratic effects in SGMM and PSTR, the results reveal that the debt burden, the quality of policies and institutions, public expenditure, the current account balance, debt service , trade openness and terms of trade explain a substantial fraction of the variation across countries and time series in debt crisis incidence, with an inverted U-shaped relationship between debt and overindebtedness, for debt levels estimated at 57%, 61,5% and 32,64 % of GDP. Thresholds above which countries are exposed to the risks of debt distress. At several levels of control, the robustness results remain generally consistent with the basic estimates, and justify that the estimated thresholds are endogenous, not being able to call into question the budgetary standard in force within the region which limits the debt to 70 % of GDP. The estimated thresholds depend on macroeconomic indicators and the estimation method, hence there is no real consensus for a single optimal debt threshold. The article proposes that the potential consequences of the rapid increase in debt and the threshold level of debt can be considered as an indicator of targeting public debt to drive the economic policies of CEMAC countries on the integration process regional monetary.<\/p>\n Keywords:<\/strong> Thresholds, Public debt, Overindebtedness, Ordered Probit with random effects.<\/p>\n Titre<\/strong> : Seuils d\u2019endettement et surendettement : cas des pays de la CEMAC Abstract [FR] L\u2019\u00e9tude examine les seuils de transition d\u2019endettement qui pourraient susciter les crises de la dette au sein des pays de la Communaut\u00e9 Economique et Mon\u00e9taire de l\u2019Afrique Centrale choisi pour la p\u00e9riode 2000-2023. A partir des mod\u00e9lisations \u00e0 choix ordonn\u00e9e \u00e0 effets al\u00e9atoires et quadratique en SGMM et PSTR, les r\u00e9sultats r\u00e9v\u00e8lent que…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_kad_post_transparent":"default","_kad_post_title":"default","_kad_post_layout":"default","_kad_post_sidebar_id":"","_kad_post_content_style":"default","_kad_post_vertical_padding":"default","_kad_post_feature":"","_kad_post_feature_position":"","_kad_post_header":false,"_kad_post_footer":false,"_kad_post_classname":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[174,14,177,220,257,36,12],"tags":[256],"class_list":["post-3591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-article","category-economics-and-finance","category-jsse","category-rjsse-volume-36","category-rufso-rjsse-volume-36-issue-5","category-management-sciences","category-social-sciences","tag-pierre-gaetant-ango-nguema"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rufso.ac.cd\/journal\/rjsse\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3591","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rufso.ac.cd\/journal\/rjsse\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rufso.ac.cd\/journal\/rjsse\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rufso.ac.cd\/journal\/rjsse\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rufso.ac.cd\/journal\/rjsse\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3591"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/rufso.ac.cd\/journal\/rjsse\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3591\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3601,"href":"https:\/\/rufso.ac.cd\/journal\/rjsse\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3591\/revisions\/3601"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rufso.ac.cd\/journal\/rjsse\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rufso.ac.cd\/journal\/rjsse\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rufso.ac.cd\/journal\/rjsse\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nAbstract [EN]<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\n
\nEnglish title<\/strong>: Debt thresholds and over-indebtedness: case of CEMAC countries
\nAuteur(s)<\/strong>\u00a0:\u00a0Pierre Ga\u00ebtant ANGO NGUEMA<\/a>
\n<\/em>Publi\u00e9 dans\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0Journal des sciences sociales et de l\u2019ing\u00e9nierie<\/a>\u00a0,\u00a0\u00a0Volume 36<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0,\u00a0\u00a0<\/em>num\u00e9ro 5<\/a>
\ndoi<\/strong>\u00a0:\u00a010.55272\/rufso.rjsse<\/a>
\n<\/em><\/p>\nT\u00e9l\u00e9charger l\u2019article en PDF<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"